Nobodys poodle was the front page title of Newsweek last week. On the cover, the British PM Tony Blair (53), looked sternly into your eyes. The front page title paraphrased Blairs image as the obedient poodle of US president George Bush. But Blair is nobodys poodle, according to Newsweek.
The countdown have started. The date of Blairs resignation as PM is unknown, may be even not yet decided. But he will leave No 10 before the summer. Gordon Brown (56), Blairs rival, nemesis and partner will probably take over.
It is the unlogical, erratic, human nature of politics. British Labours greatest leader of all times has been painted into a corner, mainly by his own doing, having to annonce his resignation before the summer.
Tony Blair was elected MP for the first time in 1983. He became party leader for Labour in 1994, upon the sudden death of John Smith. In 1997, spearheaded by Blair, Labour made a spectacular, landslide victory, after 18 years of concervative rule. With Tony Blair as party leader, Labour have been winning again and again, in 2001 and 2005.
The golden days of the British Empire are long gone, thank God. But during the Blair years, Britain have again been defining the global agenda; propagating the wisdom of a global climate policy and a joint effort to support social and economic development in all parts of the world. Britain and Blair really are global heroes. With solid support in the British parliament Blair did a great job for Africa. He was the first world leader who really introduced the global climate and the global warming on the political agenda.
The next British parliament election will probably be in 2009 or 2010. It is easy to make a forcast; Labour will lose with Gordon Brown leading the party. A renewed concervative party lead by the much younger David Cameron (41) will probably be the next British winner.
Labour might lose next time, even if Tony Blair remained party leader and his partys PM candidate. He have been losing support among voters since Britain joined the US invasion in Iraq. In opinion polls, Labour is down on the same level in the opinion polls as the ruling Norwegian Labour party, around 28 percent. On election day, a 28 percent party will not be able to form a majority government. Not in Norway. Certainly not in Britain.
The British participation in the Iraq war is the real reason for the loss of magic touch of Tony Blair, the real reason for his approaching resignation, leaving the PM job to his older rival and partner in government, Gordon Brown (56).
Just after the invasion of Iraq, Britain had 46.000 troops in the country. They have been marginally less of a disaster in Iraq than the Americans. The number of officers and soldiers is down to 7.100. In a few days, 1.600 of them will come home. When the next election approaches, no British troops will remain in Iraq. The main reason for Tony Blairs loss of popularity, will be gone long before the next elections. With Blair, chances are Labour might win again. Without him, they will probably lose.
Blairs greatest legacy will be the transformation of British Labour from a worn down, oldfashioned, working class party, controlled by a traumatized an unpopular trade union movement, into a modern, generally respected and value oriented party for modern people.
In 1994, as a newly elected party leader, Blair launched the slogan New Labour. The old guard of the party railed him for having deserted social democratic values. Looking back at the Blair years as PM, the criticism was completely wrong. Blair have been leading his party and his country with a definite social democratic agenda, mobilizing for a global climate policy, and a joint global effort for Africa.
The dwindling respect for the PM Blair in the British electorate, is counterbalanced by growing respect for the statesman Blair in the world outside of Britain. Blair might still have his greatest successes in politics waiting for him. Both the EU and UN might make good use of him.
Tony Blair may appreciate the wisdom of the ex-PM Odvar Nordli (1976-81) of Norway: "The life as an ex-PM is by far much more agreeable than life as a PM!"
